According to Zayed, an Iraqi blogger, Shi'ite radicals have successfully overthrown U.S. forces in areas of Iraq. [
link] These militant Shi'ites follow the fatwa of their religious leader, Moktada al-Sadr [
link] , a cleric who is being hunted by coalition forces for his involvement in an assasination.
I just finished reading an article in the NYT on a similar problem in Iraq, but this one was from Sadr.
Sadr's known as one of the most radical and anti-US shi'ite clergy around. He is (according to a recent NYT report, so take it with a grain of salt because it is most certainly an outsiders opinion) the second most influential shi'ite cleric in Iraq, right behind Sistani.
To further complicate the matter, the US has recently shut down Sadr's newspaper for 60 days. While I think his attacks show a level of coordination and planning that point towards them being planned prior to shutting the newspaper down, the closing down of the newspaper gave him a very convenient excuse to begin. Then again, I'm no intel analyst, so I could very well be wrong, but that's my opinion. It's hard to mobilize that many people that quickly otherwise.
The newspaper was shut down because it was printing wild rumors and enflaming anti-US sentiments. Most commonly cited among these rumors was that an American missle and not a suicide car bomber had killed 50 Iraqi recruits waiting for training in the Iraqi army.
Sadr, in my opinion, is trying to make a grab for power. Sistani is at best luke-warm to the idea. Sadr is very young (technically, he's too young to be clergy, just a "student", but he is regarded as such by most of his followers), very radical, and very rash (obviously). Sistani can't exactly denounce the attacks, so he is instead encouraging non-violent forms of protest.
I haven't had too much time to put much thought or research into this matter, but one preliminary theory I'm working on is that the US is basically getting caught up in a power play among two leading Shi'ites. Sistani is going for a more long-term approach by working with the US as long as is necessary. Sadr would like to make a quick grab before June 30th, and the US gave him an excuse.
It's also possible that Iran (a majority Shi'ite nation, no secret) is playing a behind-the-scenes role in this.
Just a few theories from a raving lunatic ;)